Electoral Violence and Supply Chain Disruptions in Kenya's Floriculture Industry

48 Pages Posted: 27 Sep 2021 Last revised: 19 Jan 2022

Date Written: September 2021


Violent conflicts, particularly at election times in Africa, are a common cause of instability and economic disruption. This paper studies how firms react to electoral violence using the case of Kenyan flower exporters during the 2008 post-election violence as an example. The violence induced a large negative supply shock that reduced exports primarily through workers' absence and had heterogeneous effects: larger firms and those with direct contractual relationships in export markets suffered smaller production and losses of workers. On the demand side, global buyers were not able to shift sourcing to Kenyan exporters located in areas not directly affected by the violence nor to neighboring Ethiopian suppliers. Consistent with difficulties in insuring against supply-chain risk disruptions caused by electoral violence, firms in direct contractual relationships ramp up shipments just before the subsequent 2013 presidential election to mitigate risk.

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Suggested Citation

Ksoll, Christopher and Macchiavello, Rocco and Morjaria, Ameet, Electoral Violence and Supply Chain Disruptions in Kenya's Floriculture Industry (September 2021). NBER Working Paper No. w29297, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3931821

Christopher Ksoll (Contact Author)

University of Oxford ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

Rocco Macchiavello

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - London School of Economics ( email )

United Kingdom

Ameet Morjaria

Northwestern University - Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences (MEDS) ( email )

2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States

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