Why Do So Many MPs Lose their Seats in PNG?

31 Pages Posted: 28 Sep 2021

See all articles by Colin Filer

Colin Filer

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy

Terence Wood

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy

Henry Ivarature

Australian National University - Australia Pacific Security College

Date Written: September 28, 2021

Abstract

Multiple regressions are used to assess the relative significance of a number of political and social variables that might be associated with the likelihood of sitting MPs retaining or losing their seats in the 85 partially rural open electorates of Papua New Guinea (PNG). The tests reveal that the most significant of the variables for which we have reasonably accurate measures is the amount of ministerial power accrued by sitting members, either over the previous term of parliament or at the time when they stand for re-election. MPs who have spent more of the past parliamentary term in more powerful ministerial roles are less likely to lose their seats in the next election. Also significant, though less so, is a second political variable. This is the level of political competition in each electorate, as measured by the average number of candidates challenging the incumbents. Incumbents are more likely to lose their seats in electorates where more candidates have typically stood for election. Relationships between the rate of MP turnover and the social variables selected for inclusion in this analysis appear to be quite weak or entirely non-existent, but the evidence does indicate that the rate of turnover has little if anything to do with the level of ‘development’ in each electorate, and is certainly no higher in electorates with higher levels of linguistic diversity than it is in electorates with greater linguistic uniformity.

Keywords: Papua New Guinea, PNG elections, MP turnover, political competition, incumbents, ministerial power, re-election, voting

JEL Classification: D72

Suggested Citation

Filer, Colin and Wood, Terence and Ivarature, Henry, Why Do So Many MPs Lose their Seats in PNG? (September 28, 2021). Development Policy Centre Discussion Paper No. 96, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3932334

Colin Filer (Contact Author)

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy ( email )

ANU College of Asia and the Pacific
J.G. Crawford Building, #132, Lennox Crossing
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia

Terence Wood

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy ( email )

7 Liversidge Street
Lennox Crossing
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory ACT 0200
Australia

Henry Ivarature

Australian National University - Australia Pacific Security College ( email )

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