Future Global Electricity Demand Load Curves

32 Pages Posted: 4 Oct 2021

See all articles by Victhalia Zapata Castillo

Victhalia Zapata Castillo

Utrecht University - Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development

Harmen De Boer

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Hague)

Raúl Maícas Muñoz

University of Groningen

David E.H.J. Gernaat

Utrecht University

René Benders

University of Groningen

Detlef van Vuuren

Utrecht University

Abstract

The rapidly increasing electricity demand and the expected increase in the contribution of variable renewable energy sources (VRE; mainly wind and solar energy) raise the need for looking at the characteristics of long-term demand variations. Furthermore, demand changes (e.g., increasing  penetration of electric vehicles) could affect the shape of future load curves. However, long-term energy models often assume a constant load shape. In this research, we determine the shape of future electricity demand load curves with a global scope for long-term exploratory scenarios analysis within integrated assessment models (IAM). This was done by using empirical data on daily demand patterns of different end-uses and aggregating them with end-use annual electricity demand data from the IMAGE IAM. Our regional hourly aggregated patterns modelled vary over the years by projected variation of temperature and contribution variations of the different sectors to total electricity demand. Results under the shared socioeconomic pathway two show that future load curves depict low changes over time and a large sensitivity to load variations from electric vehicle daily charging patterns.

Keywords: Model, Electricity demand, IAM, VRE, SSP, scenarios

Suggested Citation

Zapata Castillo, Victhalia and De Boer, Harmen and Maícas Muñoz, Raúl and Gernaat, David E.H.J. and Benders, René and van Vuuren, Detlef, Future Global Electricity Demand Load Curves. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3935492 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3935492

Victhalia Zapata Castillo (Contact Author)

Utrecht University - Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development ( email )

Heidelberglann 2
3508 TC Utrecht
Netherlands

Harmen De Boer

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Hague) ( email )

Oranjebuitensingel 6
The Hague, 2511 VE
Netherlands

Raúl Maícas Muñoz

University of Groningen ( email )

P.O. Box 800
9700 AH Groningen, Groningen 9700 AV
Netherlands

David E.H.J. Gernaat

Utrecht University ( email )

Vredenburg 138
Utrecht, 3511 BG
Netherlands

René Benders

University of Groningen ( email )

P.O. Box 800
9700 AH Groningen, Groningen 9700 AV
Netherlands

Detlef Van Vuuren

Utrecht University

Vredenburg 138
Utrecht, 3511 BG
Netherlands

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