Impact of Population Mobility on Electricity Generation in Russiancities in the Context of the Spread of COVID-19

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of restrictive measures introduced in connection with COVID-19 on consumption and, accordingly, on electricity generation in Russian cities, which were most susceptible to outbreaks of the coronavirus infection (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg and Nizhny Novgorod). Currently, based on available data, the mobility of the population has decreased resulting in lower demand for electricity during self-isolation. Therefore, the study will be based on the hypothesis that similar changes in human behavior can be expected in the future with further spread of COVID-19 and/or the introduction of additional quarantine measures in major cities around the world. The analysis also yielded additional results: the strongest reductions in energy generation occurred in cities with high building density (7% in Moscow, 14% in Yekaterinburg). Furthermore, the decrease in energy generation in cities with low building density was not so dramatic (1% in St. Petersburg, 0% - Nizhny Novgorod). The study uses two models created with Keras LSTM. The first model forecasts power generation and uses 76 parameters. The second LSTM model forecasts new COVID-19 cases across countries, in which 10 parameters are involved.

Keywords: energy economics, power resources, energy sustainability, energy optimization, energy saving strategies