Effects of Climate on Renewable Energy Sources and Electricity Supply in Norway

25 Pages Posted: 11 Oct 2021

See all articles by Ingjerd Haddeland

Ingjerd Haddeland

Government of Norway

Jarand Hole

Government of Norway

Erik Holmqvist

Government of Norway

Valentin Koestler

Norsk Hydro ASA

Maria Sidelnikova

Government of Norway

Carl Andreas Veie

Government of Norway

Magnus Wold

Government of Norway

Date Written: 2021

Abstract

Hydro power inflow, wind power, solar power and electricity demand in Norway are estimated based on meteorological data for the period 1961-2020. The installed capacity of the production technologies is kept constant at 2020 levels throughout the analyses. Correlations within and between power sources, and trends in electricity production and consumption are investigated. Wind power production shows a higher correlation with electricity demand than hydro inflow and solar power at daily and monthly time scales. For wind and solar, correlations between power plants decrease distinctly with distance, whereas for hydro inflow the correlation dependence on distance is less clear. Hydro power inflow shows an increasing trend during the time period studied, and the relative increase is largest during the winter season. Wind and solar power production are only marginally affected by climate differences in the study period. Electricity consumption decreases somewhat during the 60-year period, due to increasing average temperatures. The combined effect is a slightly increasing trend in long term estimated electricity surplus. Although a surplus of electricity exists at the mean annual level, additional available electricity in the form of reservoir storage or import is needed to maintain security of supply within the country.

Keywords: Hydro inflow, Wind power, Solar power, Consumption, Climate

Suggested Citation

Haddeland, Ingjerd and Hole, Jarand and Holmqvist, Erik and Koestler, Valentin and Sidelnikova, Maria and Veie, Carl Andreas and Wold, Magnus, Effects of Climate on Renewable Energy Sources and Electricity Supply in Norway (2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3940150 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3940150

Ingjerd Haddeland (Contact Author)

Government of Norway ( email )

United States

Jarand Hole

Government of Norway ( email )

United States

Erik Holmqvist

Government of Norway ( email )

United States

Valentin Koestler

Norsk Hydro ASA ( email )

Norway

Maria Sidelnikova

Government of Norway ( email )

United States

Carl Andreas Veie

Government of Norway ( email )

United States

Magnus Wold

Government of Norway ( email )

United States

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