Scenario Surveillance Analysis: USAID/UKRAINE Monitoring and Learning Support Contract
54 Pages Posted: 21 Jan 2022
Date Written: May 16, 2021
Abstract
Ukraine is a land of bright possibilities and bitter realities. Its recent past has been marked by an array of contrary events and trends, such as civil re-awakening and persistent corruption, democratic reform and constitutional crises, societal reconciliation and violent conflict. In light of these counter-balancing phenomena, it can be difficult to assess whether optimism, pessimism, or some degree of a middling realism is warranted when one is attempting to determine where Ukraine is plausibly headed next. Whither Ukraine?
This report attempts to answer this question through a scenario surveillance analysis, where four plausible future development paths are juxtaposed and analyzed to determine what trends and events could lead Ukraine toward each. Through this exercise we find that Ukraine’s future is far from forgone. Should the Government of Ukraine fail in achieving many of its recently-set targets—including those for enhanced agricultural yields, attraction of foreign direct investment, increased spending on research and development, improved health outcomes, gender parity, and reduced corruption—its failure will come with a cost. This cost is expected to multiply as fewer objectives are met and more time passes. However, should the government succeed, the compounding benefits for economic growth and society more broadly will be manifold.
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