Energy Transition Metals

44 Pages Posted: 19 Oct 2021

See all articles by Lukas Boer

Lukas Boer

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin); Humboldt University of Berlin

Andrea Pescatori

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Martin Stuermer

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department

Date Written: October 1, 2021

Abstract

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.

Keywords: Conditional forecasts, structural vector autoregression, structural scenario analysis, energy transition, metals, fossil fuels, prices, climate change

JEL Classification: C32,C53,Q3,Q4,Q54

Suggested Citation

Boer, Lukas and Pescatori, Andrea and Stuermer, Martin, Energy Transition Metals (October 1, 2021). DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1976, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3945524 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3945524

Lukas Boer (Contact Author)

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstra├če 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Humboldt University of Berlin ( email )

Unter den Linden 6
Berlin, Berlin 10099
Germany

Andrea Pescatori

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Martin Stuermer

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
93
Abstract Views
340
Rank
412,008
PlumX Metrics