COVID-19 Vaccination Mandates and Vaccine Uptake

47 Pages Posted: 28 Oct 2021 Last revised: 29 Apr 2022

See all articles by Alexander Karaivanov

Alexander Karaivanov

Simon Fraser University

Dongwoo Kim

Simon Fraser University (SFU)

Shih En Lu

Simon Fraser University (SFU) - Department of Economics

Hitoshi Shigeoka

Simon Fraser University (SFU); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); The University of Tokyo - University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Public Policy

Date Written: October 20, 2021

Abstract

We evaluate the impact of government-mandated proof of vaccination requirements for access to public venues and non-essential businesses on COVID-19 vaccine uptake. We find that the announcement of a mandate is associated with a rapid and significant surge in new vaccinations (more than 60% increase in weekly first doses), using the variation in the timing of these measures across Canadian provinces in a difference-in-differences approach. Time-series analysis for each province and for France, Italy and Germany corroborates this finding. Counterfactual simulations using our estimates suggest the following cumulative gains in the vaccination rate among the eligible population (age 12 and over) as of October 31, 2021: up to 5 percentage points (p.p.) (90% CI 3.9-5.8) for Canadian provinces, adding up to 979,000 (425,000-1,266,000) first doses in total for Canada (5 to 13 weeks after the provincial mandate announcements), 8 p.p. (4.3-11) for France (16 weeks post-announcement), 12 p.p. (5-15) for Italy (14 weeks post-announcement) and 4.7 p.p (4.1-5.1) for Germany (11 weeks post-announcement).

Note: Funding: None to declare.

Declaration of Interests: None to declare.

Keywords: COVID-19, vaccine mandates, vaccine uptake, proof of vaccination, vaccine hesitancy, difference-in-differences, counterfactuals

JEL Classification: I18, I12, C23

Suggested Citation

Karaivanov, Alexander and Kim, Dongwoo and Lu, Shih En and Shigeoka, Hitoshi, COVID-19 Vaccination Mandates and Vaccine Uptake (October 20, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3946518 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3946518

Alexander Karaivanov (Contact Author)

Simon Fraser University ( email )

8888 University Drive
Burnaby, V5A1S6
Canada

Dongwoo Kim

Simon Fraser University (SFU) ( email )

8888 University Drive
Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6
Canada

Shih En Lu

Simon Fraser University (SFU) - Department of Economics

8888 University Drive
Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6
Canada

Hitoshi Shigeoka

Simon Fraser University (SFU) ( email )

8888 University Drive
Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6
Canada
(778)782-5348 (Phone)
(778)782-5348 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/view/hshigeoka/

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

The University of Tokyo - University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Public Policy ( email )

International Academic Research Building,
7 Chome-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo City, Tokyo 113-0033
Bunkyo, 113-0033
Japan

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