Is Confidence in Decisions Related to Feedback? Evidence-And Lack of Evidence-From Random Samples of Real-World Managerial Behavior?

UPF Economics and Business Working Paper No. 655

34 Pages Posted: 5 Jan 2004

See all articles by Robin M. Hogarth

Robin M. Hogarth

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences

Date Written: January 2003

Abstract

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerial behavior. However, what is the relation between confidence and feedback on decisions? To explore this and related issues, use was made of the ESM (Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by students and business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5 SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at which point they completed questionnaires about their decision making activities. These covered differences between types of decisions, their structure, feedback, and confidence in decisions as well as in the validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence and feedback. In addition, although participants know that feedback can provide both "confirming" and "disconfirming" evidence, their ability to specify appropriate feedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties in using the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further research using this methodology.

Keywords: Decision making, learning, confidence

JEL Classification: M10

Suggested Citation

Hogarth, Robin M., Is Confidence in Decisions Related to Feedback? Evidence-And Lack of Evidence-From Random Samples of Real-World Managerial Behavior? (January 2003). UPF Economics and Business Working Paper No. 655, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=394921 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.394921

Robin M. Hogarth (Contact Author)

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain
34 93 542 2561 (Phone)
34 93 542 1746 (Fax)

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