Policy Performance and the Behavior of Inflation Expectations

International Journal of Central Banking

46 Pages Posted: 18 Nov 2021

See all articles by Hakan Kara

Hakan Kara

Central Bank of Turkey; Bilkent University

Date Written: October 28, 2021

Abstract

This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering thirteen years of inflation targeting period in a major emerging economy, we present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the inflation expectations associated with evolving macroeconomic and policy performance. Rapidly changing nature of the policy setting and ample data variation in our data set constitute a suitable background to explore this question. We use a unique survey which includes matched policy rate and fixed-horizon inflation expectations at the individual level. Moreover, the paper employs a novel technique where direct feedback from the survey participants is used to determine the baseline empirical model governing expectations dynamics. Interpretation of the empirical findings joint with the feedback from the survey respondents indicate that the anchoring power of inflation targets depend on the policy performance. The weights attached to inflation targets in forming expectations are strongly associated with the size of the inflation deviation from the targets. As the targets become less credible through time, the survey participants assign increasingly higher weight to past inflation and the relationship between exchange rates and inflation expectations becomes stronger. Overall, our results imply that expectations behavior might display significant and rapid shifts with the underlying economic and policy performance. Therefore, policy makers in advanced and emerging economies should not take the current stability of inflation expectations for granted.

Keywords: Inflation expectations; Monetary policy; Inflation; Survey data; Emerging Markets

JEL Classification: C51; C53; E31; E37; E58

Suggested Citation

Kara, A. Hakan, Policy Performance and the Behavior of Inflation Expectations (October 28, 2021). International Journal of Central Banking, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3952180

A. Hakan Kara (Contact Author)

Central Bank of Turkey ( email )

Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus
06100 Ankara
Turkey

Bilkent University ( email )

Bilkent, Ankara 06533
Turkey
06800 (Fax)

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