Development of a Method for Assessing the Security of Cyber-Physical Systems Based on the Lotka-Volterra Model

Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 5(9 (113), 30–47. doi:10.15587/1729-4061.2021.241638 2021

18 Pages Posted: 17 Dec 2021

See all articles by Serhii Yevseiev

Serhii Yevseiev

Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics

Serhii Pohasii

Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics

Stanislav Milevskyi

Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics

Oleksandr Milov

Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics

Yevgen Melenti

Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University

Ivan Hrod

Ternopil Ivan Puluj National Technical University

Denis Berestov

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

Ruslan Fedorenko

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

Oleg Kurchenko

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

Date Written: October 31, 2021

Abstract

The paper presents the results of the development of a method for assessing the security of cyber-physical systems based on the Lotka–Volterra model. Security models of cyber-physical systems are proposed: “predator–prey” taking into account the computing capabilities and focus of targeted cyberattacks, “predator–prey” taking into account the possible competition of attackers in relation to the “prey”, “predator–prey” taking into account the relationships between “prey species” and “predator species”, “predator–prey” taking into account the relationship between “prey species” and “predator species”. Based on the proposed approach, the coefficients of the Lotka–Volterra model α=0.39, β=0.32, γ=0.29, φ=0.27 were obtained, which take into account the synergy and hybridity of modern threats, funding for the formation and improvement of the protection system, and also allow determining the financial and computing capabilities of the attacker based on the identified threats.

The proposed method for assessing the security of cyber-physical systems is based on the developed threat classifier, allows assessing the current security level and provides recommendations regarding the allocation of limited protection resources based on an expert assessment of known threats. This approach allows offline dynamic simulation, which makes it possible to timely determine attackers' capabilities and form preventive protection measures based on threat analysis. In the simulation, actual bases for assessing real threats and incidents in cyber-physical systems can be used, which allows an expert assessment of their impact on both individual security services and security components (cyber security, information security and security of information).

The presented simulation results do not contradict the graphical results of the classical Lotka–Volterra model, which indicates the adequacy of the proposed approach for assessing the security of cyber-physical systems.

Keywords: critical infrastructure, security system, threat classifier, Lotka–Volterra model, simulation method, security level

Suggested Citation

Yevseiev, Serhii and Pohasii, Serhii and Milevskyi, Stanislav and Milov, Oleksandr and Melenti, Yevgen and Hrod, Ivan and Berestov, Denis and Fedorenko, Ruslan and Kurchenko, Oleg, Development of a Method for Assessing the Security of Cyber-Physical Systems Based on the Lotka-Volterra Model (October 31, 2021). Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 5(9 (113), 30–47. doi:10.15587/1729-4061.2021.241638 2021, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3956674

Serhii Yevseiev (Contact Author)

Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics ( email )

9-A Nauky Avenue
Kharkiv, 61166
Ukraine

Serhii Pohasii

Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics ( email )

9-A Nauky Avenue
Kharkiv, 61166
Ukraine

Stanislav Milevskyi

Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics ( email )

9-A Nauky Avenue
Kharkiv, 61166
Ukraine

Oleksandr Milov

Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics ( email )

9-A Nauky Avenue
Kharkiv, 61166
Ukraine

Yevgen Melenti

Yaroslav Mudryi National Law University ( email )

61024, Pushkins'ka St
77, Kharkiv
Kharkiv
Ukraine

Ivan Hrod

Ternopil Ivan Puluj National Technical University ( email )

Ternopil
Ukraine

Denis Berestov

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv ( email )

вул. Володимирська, 60
Kyiv, 01601
Ukraine

Ruslan Fedorenko

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv ( email )

вул. Володимирська, 60
Kyiv, 01601
Ukraine

Oleg Kurchenko

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv ( email )

вул. Володимирська, 60
Kyiv, 01601
Ukraine

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