Evidence on the Mean-Reverting Tendencies of Closed-End Fund Discounts
Richard David Johnson
Colorado State University
J. Kenton Zumwalt
Colorado State University, Fort Collins - Department of Finance & Real Estate
Financial Review, Vol. 38, No. 2, May 2003
Closed-end fund (CEF) discounts vary widely over time due to changes in share price, net asset value (NAV), or both. Prior studies suggest discounts are mean reverting. We examine the mean-reversion issue by employing cointegration procedures. Specifically, we identify bond and equity CEFs that exhibit stationary time-series properties and find statistically significant error correction terms that quantify the speed of mean reversion. The results indicate that mean reversion is caused by changes in both share price and NAVs. However, CEFs can only provide excess returns when the discount narrows due to share price increases.
Date posted: July 21, 2003