Agent-Based Simulation of Central Bank Digital Currencies

28 Pages Posted: 10 Nov 2021

See all articles by Amanah Ramadiah

Amanah Ramadiah

Financial Network Analytics Ltd

Marco Galbiati

S&P Global

Kimmo Soramäki

Financial Network Analytics (FNA)

Date Written: November 9, 2021

Abstract

This paper presents a multi-period agent-based model for the study of macro-financial effects related to the introduction of a retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Calibrating it with aggregate statistics of the German retail payment market, we exemplify how the model can be used to quantify the impact of a CBDC on i) the usage of alternative means of payments, ii) the composition of consumer's wealth, and iii) the banking sector disintermediation. We find that CBDC can be configured without largely impacting the banking sector balance sheet. However, we also find those card companies may suffer a substantial decline in their transaction revenues. We see this model as a framework that can be enriched and tuned to answer a myriad of questions relevant to different jurisdictions from a macro-financial angle. The model is publicly available in the FNA simulation platform for running other policy experiments i.e., testing the efficacy of alternative configurations of CBDCs.

Keywords: CBDC, payment systems, agent-based model, economic impact, disintermediation

JEL Classification: C63, E41, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

Ramadiah, Amanah and Galbiati, Marco and Soramäki, Kimmo, Agent-Based Simulation of Central Bank Digital Currencies (November 9, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3959759 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3959759

Amanah Ramadiah (Contact Author)

Financial Network Analytics Ltd ( email )

United Kingdom

Marco Galbiati

S&P Global ( email )

55 Water Street
New York, NY 10041
United States

Kimmo Soramäki

Financial Network Analytics (FNA)

4-8 Crown Place
London, EC2A 4BT
United Kingdom

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