Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

53 Pages Posted: 15 Nov 2021

See all articles by Pragyan Deb

Pragyan Deb

International Monetary Fund (IMF); London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Financial Markets Group

Davide Furceri

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Daniel Jiménez

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Siddharth Kothari

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Jonathan D. Ostry

Georgetown University; International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Nour Tawk

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 1, 2021

Abstract

This paper examines empirically the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. We assemble a comprehensive and novel cross-country database at a daily frequency on vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for the period December 16, 2020–June 20, 2021. Using this data, we find that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak.

Keywords: containment measures, COVID-19, Pandemics, vaccinations

JEL Classification: C31, C33, E65, F4, O50

Suggested Citation

Deb, Pragyan and Furceri, Davide and Jiménez, Daniel and Kothari, Siddharth and Ostry, Jonathan D. and Tawk, Nour, Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes (October 1, 2021). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP16681, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3960285

Pragyan Deb (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Financial Markets Group ( email )

Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

Davide Furceri

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Daniel Jiménez

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Siddharth Kothari

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Jonathan D. Ostry

Georgetown University ( email )

Washington, DC 20057
United States

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Nour Tawk

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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