MLB Moneylines as Investment Assets

57 Pages Posted: 31 Jan 2022

See all articles by Robert Axelsen

Robert Axelsen

Princeton University - Department of Economics

Date Written: November 14, 2021


In this paper, I apply prediction market theory to Major League Baseball (MLB) moneyline pricing.
Applying various machine learning models to a comprehensive data set of past game and player data, I calibrate probability estimates of teams’ chances to win games. With these probability estimates, I backtest profitable investment strategies using modified versions of the Kelly criterion staking strategy. Finally, I implement a profitable real-world betting strategy using the techniques developed herein over the first three months of the 2021 MLB season.

Suggested Citation

Axelsen, Robert, MLB Moneylines as Investment Assets (November 14, 2021). Available at SSRN: or

Robert Axelsen (Contact Author)

Princeton University - Department of Economics ( email )

Princeton, NJ 08544-1021
United States
9082852113 (Phone)

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