Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for U.S. Inflation and GDP Growth?
IGIER Working Paper No. 236
46 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2003
Date Written: April 2003
Abstract
In this paper we evaluate the relative merits of three approaches to information extraction from a large data set for forecasting, namely, the use of an automated model selection procedure, the adoption of a factor model, and single-indicator-based forecast pooling. The comparison is conducted using a large set of indicators for forecasting US inflation and GDP growth. We also compare our large set of leading indicators with purely autoregressive models, using an evaluation procedure that is particularly relevant for policy making. The evaluation is conducted both ex-post and in a pseudo real time context, for several forecast horizons, and using both recursive and rolling estimation. The results indicate a preference for simple forecasting tools, with a good relative performance of pure autoregressive models, and substantial instability in the leading characteristics of the indicators.
Keywords: Leading indicator, factor model, model selection, GDP growth, inflation
JEL Classification: C53, E37, C50
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting
By Mario Forni, Marc Hallin, ...
-
Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets
-
By James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
-
Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment
By Ben S. Bernanke and Jean Boivin
-
Eurocoin: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle
By Filippo Altissimo, Antonio Bassanetti, ...
-
Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?
By Jean Boivin and Serena Ng
-
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis
By James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
-
By Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, ...
-
By Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, ...