Production Networks and War: Evidence from Ukraine

53 Pages Posted: 18 Jan 2022 Last revised: 1 Aug 2022

See all articles by Vasily Korovkin

Vasily Korovkin

CERGE-EI

Alexey Makarin

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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Date Written: July 31, 2022

Abstract

How do severe shocks such as war alter the economy? We study how a country's production network is affected by a devastating but localized conflict. Using unique transaction-level data on Ukrainian railway shipments around the start of the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis, we uncover several novel indirect effects of conflict on firms. First, we document substantial propagation effects on interfirm trade --- trade declines even between partners outside the conflict areas if one of them had traded with those areas before the conflict events. The magnitude of such second-degree effect of conflict is one-fifth of the first-degree effect. Ignoring this propagation would lead to an underestimate of the total impact of conflict on trade by about 67%. Second, war induces sudden changes in the production-network structure that influence firm performance. Specifically, we find that firms that exogenously became more central --- after the conflict practically cut off certain regions from the rest of Ukraine --- received a relative boost to their revenues. Finally, in a production-network model, we separately estimate the effects of the exogenous firm removal and the subsequent endogenous network adjustment on firm revenue distribution. For a median firm, network adjustment compensates for 80% of the network destruction a year after the conflict onset.

Keywords: Conflict, Trade, Firms, Firm Linkages, Production Networks

JEL Classification: D22, D74, F14, F51, H56

Suggested Citation

Korovkin, Vasily and Makarin, Alexey, Production Networks and War: Evidence from Ukraine (July 31, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3969161 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3969161

Vasily Korovkin

CERGE-EI ( email )

P.O. Box 882
7 Politickych veznu
Prague 1, 111 21
Czech Republic

HOME PAGE: http://www.vaskorovkin.com

Alexey Makarin (Contact Author)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

100 Main Street
E62-416
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://alexeymakarin.github.io/

Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF)

Via Sallustiana, 62
Rome, Lazio 00187
Italy

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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