From Global to National Scenarios: Exploring Carbon Emissions to 2050

Abstract

The world is still following an unsustainable development pathway, facing great challenges in global CO₂ emissions reduction in the coming decades. In this study, we use Kaya identity model to project CO₂ emissions. We consider three main scenarios (business-as-usual, BAU; post-Copenhagen-Paris, PCP; deglobalization (COVID-19), DGC), which explore different pathways for CO₂ emissions of fuel combustion to 2050 from global to national level. The results show that industrialized countries have been the largest contributors to global CO₂ emissions, but some emerging economies are now among the top emitters in absolute terms. The main industrialized countries should be more responsible for reducing global CO₂ emissions. Among the global, regional and Sino-US CO₂ emissions reduction scenarios, the PCP scenario is the best CO₂ emissions reduction pathway, in this scenario global CO₂ emissions will reach a peak by 2029 (31.813 Gt). Renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in meeting energy needs and reducing CO₂ emissions. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the largest-ever decline in global emissions.

Keywords: CO2 emissions projections, peak emissions, low-carbon and sustainable policies, renewable energy, COVID-19 pandemic