Download This Paper
Preprints with The Lancet is part of SSRN´s First Look, a place where journals identify content of interest prior to publication. Authors have opted in at submission to The Lancet family of journals to post their preprints on Preprints with The Lancet. The usual SSRN checks and a Lancet-specific check for appropriateness and transparency have been applied. Preprints available here are not Lancet publications or necessarily under review with a Lancet journal. These preprints are early stage research papers that have not been peer-reviewed. The findings should not be used for clinical or public health decision making and should not be presented to a lay audience without highlighting that they are preliminary and have not been peer-reviewed. For more information on this collaboration, see the comments published in The Lancet about the trial period, and our decision to make this a permanent offering, or visit The Lancet´s FAQ page, and for any feedback please contact preprints@lancet.com.
Medical Occupation Preference Under the Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Social and Risk Preference
72 Pages Posted: 24 Nov 2021
More...Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented demands on health care workers. This will likely have fundamental and lasting impacts on preferences to work in the medical profession. We examine the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on medical occupation preferences, focusing on Wuhan. The outbreak of COVID-19 began in Wuhan and served as an exogenous shock on many people’s lives, especially those with a career in the medical industry.
Method: We conducted a survey of 5 686 respondents in China regarding the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on medical occupation preference. The survey has a two-by-two factorial design varying engagement and severity of influence during the pandemic, comparing: (1) medical and non-medical workers and (2) Wuhan and non-Wuhan residents. The survey was conducted during March 2020 at a time when the pandemic in Wuhan has just passed its peak. This allows us to capture the most immediate effect from the pandemic. To test the robustness of our results we conducted a complimentary survey in the UK in May 2020 with 1 198 respondents. We also, in December 2020, conducted a field experiment with 428 first and second-year medical students in Wuhan. This allows us to compare students who enrolled before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan.
Findings: We find that a significant negative impact of the pandemic has on the willingness to let a loved one choose a medical occupation. Individuals who were heavily influenced by the pandemic, i.e. Wuhan residents especially medical workers, express significantly lower medical occupation preferences. Further analysis from Sobel-Goodman mediation tests reveal that around half of the total negative effect can be mediated by enhanced risk aversion and reduced pro-sociality. Thus, the experience of the pandemic appears to have influenced risk-aversion and social preferences which then influence medical occupation preferences. The UK survey and the field experiment among university medical school students in Wuhan reinforce these findings.
Interpretation: Our results suggest a fundamental change in medical occupation preferences. Medical workers' shift in risk- and social-preferences has caused a reduced medical occupation preference. Non-medical workers and students who are more pro-social and risk-seeking are more likely to choose a medical occupation. This change is already influencing the intake of students into medical school and so will have long term consequences.
Funding Information: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 72173093) and NSFC Youth (Grant no. 71903147).
Declaration of Interests: We declare no competing interests
Ethics Approval Statement: Ethical approval for the data collected was provided by Wuhan University (China Survey and field experiment) and De Montfort university (UK Study).
Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, Medical occupation preference, Healthcare industry, Health Economics, Risk and Social preference
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation