Sensitivity Analysis

Andrea Saltelli, Arnald Puy and Samuele Lo Piano, Sensitivity analysis, to appear in Elgar Encyclopaedia of Ecological Economics edited by Emilio Padilla Rosa and Jesús Ramos Martín, forthcoming 2023, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.

10 Pages Posted: 6 Dec 2021

See all articles by Andrea Saltelli

Andrea Saltelli

UPF Barcelona School of Management

Arnald Puy

University of Bergen

Samuele Lo Piano

University of Reading

Date Written: December 3, 2021

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis (SA) studies how much the uncertainty of a model output depends upon its inputs. Though it is generally agreed in existing guidelines that uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are both crucial for the validation or verification of a model, their application is hampered by practical difficulties, scarce awareness, and at times reluctance to expose the weakness of a model.
We present here global sensitivity analysis, mainly through one class of global SA methods known as ‘variance-based’ – considered by most practitioners as a recommended practice - and offer pointers on additional methods. We also suggest several hints for a successful and effective use these of these techniques.

Keywords: : Uncertainty analysis, global sensitivity analysis, variance-based methods, ANOVA, Monte Carlo methods, O’Neil’s conjecture.

JEL Classification: C00

Suggested Citation

Saltelli, Andrea and Puy, Arnald and Lo Piano, Samuele, Sensitivity Analysis (December 3, 2021). Andrea Saltelli, Arnald Puy and Samuele Lo Piano, Sensitivity analysis, to appear in Elgar Encyclopaedia of Ecological Economics edited by Emilio Padilla Rosa and Jesús Ramos Martín, forthcoming 2023, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3977108 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3977108

Andrea Saltelli (Contact Author)

UPF Barcelona School of Management ( email )

Carrer de Balmes
Carrer de Balmes, 132
Barcelona, Barcelona 08008
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://www.andreasaltelli.eu

Arnald Puy

University of Bergen ( email )

Muséplassen 1
N-5008 Bergen, +47 55 58
Norway

Samuele Lo Piano

University of Reading ( email )

Whiteknights
Reading, Berkshire RG6 6AH
United Kingdom

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