Confounding, Spillovers and Interactions Influence Estimates of Social Distancing Policy Effects

38 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2022 Last revised: 23 May 2023

Date Written: May 22, 2023

Abstract

Social distancing policies have been widely used to curb the spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19, but assessing their effectiveness is challenging. This study shows that widely-used methods to estimate the effects of such policies are highly sensitive to accounting, or failing to account, for the simultaneous adoption of policies and the presence of spillovers across geographies stemming from human movement. By estimating a series of nonparametric models on fine-grained mobility, epidemiological, and policy data from Mexico, this research shows that failing to consider confounders, interactions,and spillovers can change the magnitude and the sign of estimated policy effects, hampering the design of optimal public policies.

Keywords: Social distancing, policy design, spillovers, confounding, interactions

JEL Classification: I10, I18, C18, C23

Suggested Citation

Enríquez, José Ramón and Larreguy, Horacio and Simpser, Alberto, Confounding, Spillovers and Interactions Influence Estimates of Social Distancing Policy Effects (May 22, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3980184 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3980184

José Ramón Enríquez

Harvard University ( email )

Cambridge, MA
United States

Horacio Larreguy

ITAM ( email )

Av. Camino a Sta. Teresa 930
Col. Héroes de Padierna
Mexico City, D.F. 01000, Federal District 01080
Mexico
10700 (Fax)

Alberto Simpser (Contact Author)

ITAM ( email )

Rio Hondo 1
Mexico City, CDMX 01080
Mexico
+525556284000 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.albertosimpser.com

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