The Knife Edge Election of 2020: American Politics Between Washington, Kabul, and Weimar

100 Pages Posted: 8 Dec 2021

See all articles by Thomas Ferguson

Thomas Ferguson

University of Massachusetts Boston - Department of Political Science

Paul Jorgensen

University of Texas Rio Grande Valley (UTRGV) (Formerly University of Texas-Pan American)

Jie Chen

University of Massachusetts Boston

Date Written: November 7, 2021

Abstract

This paper analyzes the 2020 election, focusing on voters, not political money, and emphasizing the importance of economic geography. Drawing extensively on county election returns, it analyzes how spatial factors combined with industrial structures to shape the outcome. It treats COVID 19’s role at length. The paper reviews studies suggesting that COVID 19 did not matter much, but then sets out a new approach indicating it mattered a great deal. The study analyzes the impact on the vote not only of unemployment but differences in income and industry structures, along with demographic factors, including religion, ethnicity, and race. It also studies how the waves of wildcat strikes and social protests that punctuated 2020 affected the vote in specific areas. Trump’s very controversial trade policies and his little discussed farm policies receive detailed attention. The paper concludes with a look at how political money helped make the results of the Congressional election different from the Presidential race. It also highlights the continuing importance of private equity and energy sectors opposed to government action to reverse climate change as conservative forces in (especially) the Republican Party, together with agricultural interests.

Keywords: political economy, voting, 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump, Populism, trade policy, farm policy, political money, Joe Biden, private equity

JEL Classification: D71, D72, G38, P16, N22, L51

Suggested Citation

Ferguson, Thomas and Jorgensen, Paul and Chen, Jie, The Knife Edge Election of 2020: American Politics Between Washington, Kabul, and Weimar (November 7, 2021). Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series No. 169, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3980948

Thomas Ferguson (Contact Author)

University of Massachusetts Boston - Department of Political Science ( email )

Boston, MA 02125
United States
617-265-7173 (Fax)

Paul Jorgensen

University of Texas Rio Grande Valley (UTRGV) (Formerly University of Texas-Pan American) ( email )

201 West University Drive
Edinburg, TX 78539
United States

Jie Chen

University of Massachusetts Boston ( email )

100 William T Morrissey Blvd
Boston, MA 02125
United States

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