Aegean Territorial Waters Conflict: An Evolutionary Narrative

36 Pages Posted: 19 May 2003

See all articles by Serdar Guner

Serdar Guner

Bilkent University - Department of International Relations

Date Written: April 24, 2003

Abstract

Conflicts over the delimitation of territorial waters are abundant around the globe. Greece and Turkey, two NATO allies, are no exceptions. The delimitation of territorial waters and continental shelf, the status of islands, islets, and flight control zones and corridors in the Aegean Sea constitute constant sources of friction between them. We offer an evolutionary game model to explore for directions their relations can take including chances of new crises and the revision of the status quo. We find that crises constitute a norm in bilateral relations of the two littoral states. The crisis equilibrium indicates routinized practices involving first displaying then falling back. Hence aggressive behavior can be periodically observed but the current status quo will persist. A revised status quo becomes a likely prospect only if both countries were posited as single unitary actors maximizing their expected utilities.

Keywords: Evolutionary game theory, hawks and doves, Aegean Sea

Suggested Citation

Guner, Serdar, Aegean Territorial Waters Conflict: An Evolutionary Narrative (April 24, 2003). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=398100 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.398100

Serdar Guner (Contact Author)

Bilkent University - Department of International Relations ( email )

Bilkent 06533, Ankara
Turkey

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