ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: An Overview and First Evaluation

137 Pages Posted: 10 Dec 2021

See all articles by Katarzyna Bańkowska

Katarzyna Bańkowska

European Central Bank (ECB)

Ana Borlescu

European Central Bank (ECB)

Evangelos Charalambakis

Bank of Greece

Antonio Dias da Silva

European Central Bank (ECB)

Davide Di Laurea

National Institute of Statistics (Istat)

Marteen Dossche

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics

Dimitris Georgarakos

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research; Center for Financial Studies (CFS)

Juha Honkkila

European Central Bank (ECB)

Neale Kennedy

European Central Bank (ECB)

Geoff Kenny

European Central Bank (ECB)

Aleksandra Kolndrekaj

European Central Bank (ECB)

Justus Meyer

Deutsche Bundesbank

Desislava Rusinova

European Central Bank (ECB)

Federica Teppa

De Nederlandsche Bank

Veli-Matti Törmälehto

Government of the Republic of Finland - Statistics Finland

Date Written: December, 2021

Abstract

The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) is an important new tool for analysing euro area household economic behaviour and expectations. This new survey covers a range of important topical areas including consumption and income, inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the labour market, housing market activity and house prices, and consumer finance and credit access. The CES, which was launched as a pilot in January 2020, is a mixed frequency modular survey, which is conducted online. The survey structure and centralised data collection ensures the collection of harmonised quantitative and qualitative euro area information in a timely manner that facilitates direct cross-country comparisons. During the pilot phase, it was conducted for the six largest euro area countries and contained 10,000 individual respondents. In the context of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the CES has been used to gather useful information on the impact of the crisis on the household sector and the effectiveness of policy measures to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. The CES also collects information on the public’s overall trust in the ECB, their knowledge about its objectives and the channels through which they learn about its monetary policy and other central bank-related topics. This paper describes the key features of this new ECB survey – including its statistical properties – and offers a first evaluation of the results from the pilot phase. It also identifies a number of areas where the survey can be usefully developed further. Overall, the experience with the CES has been very positive, and the pilot survey is considered to have achieved its main objectives.

Keywords: consumer behaviour, euro area, expectations, household surveys, micro data set

JEL Classification: C42, D12, D14, E21, E24, E31

Suggested Citation

Bańkowska, Katarzyna and Borlescu, Ana and Charalambakis, Evangelos and Dias da Silva, Antonio and Di Laurea, Davide and Dossche, Marteen and Georgarakos, Dimitris and Honkkila, Juha and Kennedy, Neale and Kenny, Geoff and Kolndrekaj, Aleksandra and Meyer, Justus and Rusinova, Desislava and Teppa, Federica and Törmälehto, Veli-Matti, ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: An Overview and First Evaluation (December, 2021). ECB Occasional Paper No. 2021/287, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3981218 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3981218

Katarzyna Bańkowska

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Ana Borlescu

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Evangelos Charalambakis

Bank of Greece ( email )

21 E. Venizelos Avenue
GR 102 50 Athens
Greece

Antonio Dias da Silva

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Davide Di Laurea

National Institute of Statistics (Istat) ( email )

Via Cesare Balbo 16
00184 Rome, 0185
Italy

Marteen Dossche

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Economics ( email )

Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

Dimitris Georgarakos

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 20
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Center for Financial Studies (CFS) ( email )

Grüneburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Juha Honkkila

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Neale Kennedy

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Geoff Kenny (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Aleksandra Kolndrekaj

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Justus Meyer

Deutsche Bundesbank ( email )

Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14
Frankfurt/Main, 60431
Germany

Desislava Rusinova

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Federica Teppa

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

PO Box 98
1000 AB Amsterdam
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

Veli-Matti Törmälehto

Government of the Republic of Finland - Statistics Finland ( email )

Finland

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