An Ounce of COVID-19 Prevention: U.S. Census Evidence of Causal Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Health Outcomes

Abstract

We use census data at the U.S. county-level to provide causal evidence of health benefits of COVID-19 vaccines. Using variation across age groups within a (county, sample month) pair, we conduct triple-difference tests that control for all variation among counties over time. While vaccination reduces ICU admissions, hospitalizations, symptomatic cases, and total cases per capita, its highest impact is in reducing death rates. All the effects are disproportionately greater for the elderly than for younger adults and two doses than for one dose. Ours is the first study to carefully demonstrate causal effects of COVID-19 vaccines using census data.

Note:
Funding: None to declare.

Declaration of Interests: None to declare.

Keywords: COVID-19, Vaccine, Death, Mortality, Hospital, Hospitalization, ICU

JEL Classification: I12, I18