Interest Rates Across the World: Global, Regional, and Idiosyncratic Factors

Abstract

This paper employs a dynamic factor model with endogenous regional clustering and extreme value adjustment properties to construct a world interest rate, as well as regional factors, based on country-specific short-run real interest rates from 43 markets. We find that global and regional factors play crucial roles in determining local rates among advanced countries, while local factors are more important among emerging markets. Further, convenience yields essentially affect both global and regional rates, especially in the longer run. Moreover, the relationship between global and local rates depends crucially on capital account openness, while the choice of exchange rate regime is a critical determinant of the transmission of regional factors. Lastly, we show that a U.S. nominal rate shock would raise the global real rate a quarter later, with a stronger impact observed before the U.S. rate hits the zero lower bound in 2008.

Keywords: World interest rate; dynamic factor model; regional factors; convenience yield, global financial risks; trilemma

JEL Classification: G50, E43, F36, F62