No Unit Root in Real GDP: Evidence for Preindustrial England, 1270-1700
8 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2022
Date Written: December 19, 2021
Using five centuries of annual data from preindustrial England, Zivot-Andrews tests reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in real GDP. The tests identify structural breaks at the start of the Black Death (1348) and the Wars of the Roses (1457). The tests conclude that real GDP was otherwise trend stationary. Positive trend growth after 1457 suggests that productivity growth began centuries before the Industrial Revolution. By one calculation, it averaged about 3% per decade from 1457 to 1700.
Keywords: preindustrial, economic growth, productivity
JEL Classification: N13, O40
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation