Countering Violent Radicalization: Comparing Antiterrorism, Counterterrorism and Counter Radicalization Strategies

WPI Department of Social Science and Policy Studies Working Papers No. 2021-006

31 Pages Posted: 19 Feb 2022

See all articles by Timothy Clancy

Timothy Clancy

Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI)

B. Addison

Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI)

Oleg V. Pavlov

Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI)

Khalid Saeed

Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI)

Date Written: December 20, 2021

Abstract

This paper evaluates strategies to combat terrorism under the premise that violent radicalization operates as a social contagion. We tested antiterrorism, counterterrorism, and counter radicalization strategies in isolation and combination. All policies were tested in a simulation model built to the DIME-PMESII military standard across 10 years under optimal, realistic, and worst-case scenarios. Tested policies include established and novel approaches. The two novel approaches focused deterrence and terror contagion containment performed better. First focused deterrence reduced terror incidents by 68% under optimal conditions. However, this effect was reduced in half if it provoked a backlash. The terror contagion containment strategy borrows from well-studied methods on limiting social contagions following celebrity suicide, known as the Werther effect. As a counter radicalization strategy, it reduced incidents by 98% even with a realistic constraint of variable public support. But under a stress-test of a worst-case scenario, terror contagion containment struggled to reduce violence. However, when bolstered by adding focused deterrence and grievance reduction, the combination reduced incidents by 67% in the worst-case scenario. These results point to promising avenues for combating terrorism through further research of novel approaches followed by the development of pilot programs.

Keywords: antiterrorism, counterterrorism, counter radicalization, focused deterrence, social contagion, DIME-PMESII, mass shooting, terrorism, Werther effect, violent extremism, violent radicalization

Suggested Citation

Clancy, Timothy and Addison, B. and Pavlov, Oleg V. and Saeed, Khalid, Countering Violent Radicalization: Comparing Antiterrorism, Counterterrorism and Counter Radicalization Strategies (December 20, 2021). WPI Department of Social Science and Policy Studies Working Papers No. 2021-006, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3990014 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3990014

Timothy Clancy (Contact Author)

Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) ( email )

100 Institute Road
Worcester, MA 01609
United States

B. Addison

Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) ( email )

100 Institute Road
Worcester, MA 01609
United States

Oleg V. Pavlov

Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) ( email )

100 Institute Road
Worcester, MA 01609
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.wpi.edu/people/faculty/opavlov

Khalid Saeed

Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) ( email )

100 Institute Road
Worcester, MA 01609
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
108
Abstract Views
661
Rank
518,536
PlumX Metrics