Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP

60 Pages Posted: 27 Dec 2021 Last revised: 14 Jul 2022

See all articles by Ana Galvão

Ana Galvão

affiliation not provided to SSRN

James Mitchell

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Date Written: July 13, 2022

Abstract

Economic statistics are commonly published without estimates of their uncertainty. We conduct two waves of a randomized controlled online experiment to assess if and how the UK public understands data uncertainty. A control group observes only the point estimate of GDP. Treatment groups are presented with alternative qualitative and quantitative communications of GDP data uncertainty. We find that most of the public understands that GDP numbers are uncertain. Quantitative communications of data uncertainty help align the public’s subjective probabilistic expectations of data uncertainty with objective estimates, but do not decrease trust in the statistical office.

Keywords: Experiments, Data Uncertainty, Uncertainty Communication, Data Revisions

JEL Classification: C82, E01, D80

Suggested Citation

Galvão, Ana and Mitchell, James, Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP (July 13, 2022). FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 21-28R, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3992626 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3992626

Ana Galvão

affiliation not provided to SSRN

James Mitchell (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ( email )

East 6th & Superior
Cleveland, OH 44101-1387
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/our-research/economists/james-mitchell.aspx

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