Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections
42 Pages Posted: 5 Jan 2022
Date Written: 2021
Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.
Keywords: fertility, partisanship, elections
JEL Classification: J130, D720
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation