Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

42 Pages Posted: 5 Jan 2022

See all articles by Gordon B. Dahl

Gordon B. Dahl

UC San Diego - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Runjing Lu

University of Alberta

William Mullins

University of California, San Diego (UCSD)

Multiple version iconThere are 5 versions of this paper

Date Written: 2021

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.

Keywords: fertility, partisanship, elections

JEL Classification: J130, D720

Suggested Citation

Dahl, Gordon B. and Lu, Runjing and Mullins, William, Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (2021). CESifo Working Paper No. 9488, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3998026 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3998026

Gordon B. Dahl (Contact Author)

UC San Diego - Department of Economics ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
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Runjing Lu

University of Alberta ( email )

William Mullins

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
Mail Code 0502
La Jolla, CA 92093-0112
United States

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