Rain does not fall on one roof alone: Idir membership mediates risk perceptions on rainfall frequency and intensity in rural Ethiopia

23 Pages Posted: 4 Jan 2022 Last revised: 23 May 2023

See all articles by Martina Occelli

Martina Occelli

School of Integrative Plant Science

Ragaglini Giorgio

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Fadda Carlo

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Pè Mario Enrico

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Nuvolari Alessandro

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Mantino Alberto

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

Perception on frequency and intensity of rainfalls is key to resilience in rainfed areas, even more so in the current changing climate. Farmers able to correctly interpret variance and extremes in short-term precipitations do retain a significant advantage. Membership into informal associations are known to foster the exchange of traditional and local knowledge. However, despite the communitarian nature of these rural societies, we know little about how the share of local knowledge influences risk perceptions on rainfall. In this study we combine socioeconomic and agronomic data with daily rainfall estimates to explore links between farmers’ rainfall risk and shared local knowledge over time. We build a panel dataset, interviewing 280 smallholder farmers in Ethiopia in 2013 and 2019, while characterizing the frequency and intensity of rainfalls in the crop growing seasons of this six-years window. By analyzing varietal and soil management choices, we identify a novel indirect measure of farmer’s rainfall risk perception. This measure shows high heterogeneity among neighboring households. Regressing the perception index on rainfall parameters, we find that changes in precipitation variance and maxima rarely explain changes in risk perception. The picture mutates when we interact changes in rainfall parameters and idir membership. We find that idir membership mediates risk perceptions, with members being able to better comprehend changes in rainfall distribution during the growing season. Idir members show also higher food security, in terms of calories and protein intake.

Keywords: rainfall risk perception, rainfall distribution, social learning, idir

Suggested Citation

Occelli, Martina and Giorgio, Ragaglini and Carlo, Fadda and Enrico, Pè Mario and Alessandro, Nuvolari and Alberto, Mantino, Rain does not fall on one roof alone: Idir membership mediates risk perceptions on rainfall frequency and intensity in rural Ethiopia. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4000303 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4000303

Martina Occelli (Contact Author)

School of Integrative Plant Science ( email )

Ithaca, NY 14853
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://cals.cornell.edu/martina-occelli

Ragaglini Giorgio

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Fadda Carlo

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Pè Mario Enrico

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Nuvolari Alessandro

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Mantino Alberto

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

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