Heterogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions

66 Pages Posted: 7 Jan 2022 Last revised: 2 Mar 2022

See all articles by Andrew Jordan

Andrew Jordan

Washington University in St. Louis

Ezra Karger

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Derek A. Neal

University of Chicago - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 12, 2022

Abstract

We examine 70,581 felony court cases filed in Chicago, IL, during the period 1990–2007. We exploit case randomization to assess the impact of judge assignment and sentencing decisions on the arrival of new charges. Our estimates of the impact of incarceration on recidivism show that, in marginal cases, incarceration creates large and lasting reductions in recidivism among first offenders. Yet, among repeat offenders, incarceration sentences for marginal offenders create only modest short-run incapacitation effects and no lasting reductions in the incidence of new felony charges. Our results raise concerns about sentencing reforms, enacted in most states over recent decades, that encourage or mandate incarceration sentences for many offenders with prior criminal records.

Keywords: recidivism, sentencing decisions, heterogeneity

JEL Classification: K4, K14

Suggested Citation

Jordan, Andrew and Karger, Ezra and Neal, Derek Allen, Heterogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions (February 12, 2022). FRB of Chicago Working Paper No. 2022-02, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4002718 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4002718

Andrew Jordan

Washington University in St. Louis ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1208
Saint Louis, MO MO 63130-4899
United States

Ezra Karger (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago ( email )

230 South LaSalle Street
Chicago, IL 60604
United States

Derek Allen Neal

University of Chicago - Department of Economics ( email )

1126 East 59th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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