White Political Grievance and Confidence in Electoral Outcomes: Insight from the 2012-2020 ANES

Abstract

Scholars have argued that white ingroup attitudes have become politicized and influence vote choice and policy preferences. Others show that white grievance—defined as beliefs that whites face discrimination—is also politically consequential as it influences vote choice and trust in government. This study argues that whites who believe that their ingroup experiences discrimination are less likely to believe that elections are fair and accurate, controlling for racial prejudice. This is especially the case for white Republicans, the group most exposed to Trump’s “Big Steal” narrative. My analysis of the 2012-2020 ANES shows that white grievance is a strong negative predictor of faith in election outcomes and local election officials. The effect of white political consciousness is null, while the white thermometer is inconsistent but positively signed. The results also show that the effect of white feelings of discrimination are conditional on partisanship but only in 2020.

Keywords: election fairness, discrimination against whites, white grievance, racial prejudice