The Path of the Righteous: Using Trace Data to Understand Fraud Decisions in Real Time

MIS Quarterly, Vol. 46, 2022, pp. 2317–2336

33 Pages Posted: 11 Mar 2022 Last revised: 17 Apr 2023

See all articles by Markus Weinmann

Markus Weinmann

University of Cologne; Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM)

Joseph Valacich

University of Arizona

Christoph Schneider

University of Navarra, IESE Business School

Jeffrey L. Jenkins

University of Arizona

Martin Thomas Hibbeln

University of Duisburg-Essen - Mercator School of Management

Date Written: October 8, 2021

Abstract

Trace data—users’ digital records when interacting with technology—can reveal their cognitive dynamics when making decisions on websites in real time. Here, we present a trace-data method—analyzing movements captured via a computer mouse—to assess potential fraud when filling out an online form. In contrast to incumbent fraud-detection methods, which analyze information after submission, mouse-movements traces can capture the cognitive dynamics of a decision to be fraudulent as it is happening. We report two controlled studies using different tasks, where participants could freely commit fraud to benefit themselves financially while we captured mouse-cursor movement data. We found that participants who entered fraudulent responses moved their mouse significantly slower and with greater deviation. We show that the extent of fraud matters such that more extensive fraud increased movement deviation and decreased movement speed. These results demonstrate the efficacy of analyzing mouse-movement traces to detect fraud during online transactions in real time, enabling organizations to confront fraud proactively as it is happening at Internet scale.

Keywords: Trace Data, Mouse-Cursor Movements, Cognitive Dissonance, Bayesian Analysis

Suggested Citation

Weinmann, Markus and Valacich, Joseph and Schneider, Christoph and Jenkins, Jeffrey L. and Hibbeln, Martin Thomas, The Path of the Righteous: Using Trace Data to Understand Fraud Decisions in Real Time (October 8, 2021). MIS Quarterly, Vol. 46, 2022, pp. 2317–2336, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4008223

Markus Weinmann (Contact Author)

University of Cologne ( email )

Albertus-Magnus-Platz
Cologne, 50923
Germany

Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM) ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands

Joseph Valacich

University of Arizona ( email )

Department of History
Tucson, AZ 85721
United States

Christoph Schneider

University of Navarra, IESE Business School ( email )

Avenida Pearson 21
Barcelona, 08034
Spain

Jeffrey L. Jenkins

University of Arizona ( email )

Department of History
Tucson, AZ 85721
United States

Martin Thomas Hibbeln

University of Duisburg-Essen - Mercator School of Management ( email )

Lotharstraße 65
Duisburg, Nordrhein-Westfalen 47057
Germany
+49 203 379-2830 (Phone)

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