A Realistic Risk Assessment of the Presidential Election of 2024

6 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2022 Last revised: 11 Nov 2022

See all articles by Matthew Seligman

Matthew Seligman

Constitutional Law Center, Stanford Law School; Yale Law School

Date Written: January 26, 2022

Abstract

This short essay provides a realistic risk assessment of how partisans could manipulate the Electoral Count Act of 1887 in the presidential election of 2024. It concludes that the dominant perspective, which focuses solely on the two chambers of Congress together voting to reject a single slate of legitimate electoral votes, is incorrect. The most pressing threat is that the House of Representatives and the governor would together manipulate the Act to reverse the results of the election in a critical swing state, and with it the outcome of the Electoral College.

Suggested Citation

Seligman, Matthew, A Realistic Risk Assessment of the Presidential Election of 2024 (January 26, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4018380 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4018380

Matthew Seligman (Contact Author)

Constitutional Law Center, Stanford Law School ( email )

559 Nathan Abbott Way
Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Yale Law School ( email )

127 Wall Street
New Haven, CT 06510
United States

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