A Realistic Risk Assessment of the Presidential Election of 2024

Abstract

This short essay provides a realistic risk assessment of how partisans could manipulate the Electoral Count Act of 1887 in the presidential election of 2024. It concludes that the dominant perspective, which focuses solely on the two chambers of Congress together voting to reject a single slate of legitimate electoral votes, is incorrect. The most pressing threat is that the House of Representatives and the governor would together manipulate the Act to reverse the results of the election in a critical swing state, and with it the outcome of the Electoral College.