Drivers of Rising Agriculture Water Scarcity in China

Abstract

Agriculture water scarcity is a global burden for food security and ecosystem sustainability, particularly in China with water distribution imbalance and tremendous water demand for food. By incorporating the water scarce index into the water footprint accounting based on the prefectural level national land use and water survey data, and conducting spatial decomposition, this study found that China’s scarce agriculture water experienced fluctuating decline since 2004, but reversed to rapid increase after 2011.The irrigation expansion for wheat and maize in China’s northern basin led to an increase in water intensity and drove the accelerated increase in scarce water use after 2011, though China become a net crop importer in 2004 and brought benefit in reducing domestic water scarcity from global trade. The regional land-driven water scarcity finding suggest that spatial regulation for “water-oriented cropland distribution” can prevent cropland expansion in water scarce regions and mitigate agriculture water scarcity in China. Agriculture water scarcity is a global burden for food security and ecosystem sustainability, particularly in China with water distribution imbalance and tremendous water demand for food. By incorporating the water scarce index into the water footprint accounting based on the prefectural level national land use and water survey data, and conducting spatial decomposition, this study found that China’s scarce agriculture water experienced fluctuating decline since 2004, but reversed to rapid increase after 2011.The irrigation expansion for wheat and maize in China’s northern basin led to an increase in water intensity and drove the accelerated increase in scarce water use after 2011, though China become a net crop importer in 2004 and brought benefit in reducing domestic water scarcity from global trade. The regional land-driven water scarcity finding suggest that spatial regulation for “water-oriented cropland distribution” can prevent cropland expansion in water scarce regions and mitigate agriculture water scarcity in China.

Keywords: Scarce irrigation water, Land use change, Water-land nexus, Unbalanced land distribution, Decomposition analysis