Measuring and stress-testing market-implied bank capital

Abstract

We propose a methodology for measuring the market-implied capital of banks by subtracting from the market value of equity (market capitalization) a credit spread-based correction for the value of shareholders’ default option. We show that without such a correction, the estimated impact of a severe market downturn is systematically distorted, underestimating the risk of banks with low market capitalization. We argue that this adjusted measure of capital is the relevant market-implied capital measure for policymakers. We propose an econometric model for the combined simulation of equity prices and CDS spreads, which allows us to introduce this correction in the SRISK framework for measuring systemic risk.

Keywords: Banking, Capital, Stress Test, Systemic Risk, Multifactor Model

JEL Classification: C32, G01, G21, G28, G32