Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

This paper examines empirically the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. We assemble a comprehensive and novel cross-country database at a daily frequency on vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for the period December 16, 2020-June 20, 2021. Using this data, we find that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak.

Keywords: COVID-19, pandemics, vaccinations, containment measures., vaccine rollout, vaccine deployment, vaccine acceptance, vaccine procurement, vaccination rollout, Infrastructure, Spillovers, Global

JEL Classification: C31, C33, E65, O50, F40, I12, I10, J10, E22, D62

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Deb, Pragyan and Furceri, Davide and Jiménez, Daniel and Kothari, Siddharth and Ostry, Jonathan D. and Tawk, Nour, Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes (October 2021). IMF Working Paper No. 2021/247, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4026475