Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

43 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2022

See all articles by Gordon B. Dahl

Gordon B. Dahl

UC San Diego - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Runjing Lu

University of Alberta

William Mullins

University of California, San Diego (UCSD)

Multiple version iconThere are 5 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 2021

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.

Keywords: Elections, Fertility, partisanship

JEL Classification: D72, J13

Suggested Citation

Dahl, Gordon B. and Lu, Runjing and Mullins, William, Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (December 2021). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP16821, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4026689

Gordon B. Dahl (Contact Author)

UC San Diego - Department of Economics ( email )

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Mail Code 0502
La Jolla, CA 92093-0112
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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
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Runjing Lu

University of Alberta ( email )

William Mullins

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
Mail Code 0502
La Jolla, CA 92093-0112
United States

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