Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of Covid-19 Transmission Rates in Europe

81 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2022

See all articles by Alexander Chudik

Alexander Chudik

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

M. Hashem Pesaran

University of Southern California - Department of Economics

Alessandro Rebucci

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: February, 2022

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of COVID-19 effective reproduction numbers and explains their evolution for selected European countries since the start of the pandemic taking account of changes in voluntary and government-mandated social distancing, incentives to comply, vaccination and the emergence of new variants. Evidence based on panel data modeling indicates that the diversity of outcomes that we document may have resulted from the non-linear interaction of mandated and voluntary social distancing and the economic incentives that governments provided to support isolation. The importance of these factors declined over time, with vaccine uptake driving heterogeneity in country experiences in 2021. Our approach also allows us to identify the basic reproduction number, R0. It is precisely estimated and differs little across countries.

Keywords: COVID-19, multiplication factor, under-reporting, social distancing, self-isolation, SIR model, reproduction number, pandemics, vaccine

JEL Classification: C4, D0, E7, F60, I12

Suggested Citation

Chudik, Alexander and Pesaran, M. Hashem and Rebucci, Alessandro, Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of Covid-19 Transmission Rates in Europe (February, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4027248 or http://dx.doi.org/10.24149/gwp414r1

Alexander Chudik (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas ( email )

2200 North Pearl Street
PO Box 655906
Dallas, TX 75265-5906
United States

M. Hashem Pesaran

University of Southern California - Department of Economics ( email )

3620 South Vermont Ave. Kaprielian (KAP) Hall 300
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

Alessandro Rebucci

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School ( email )

100 International Drive
Baltimore, MD 21202
United States

HOME PAGE: http://carey.jhu.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/alessandro-rebucci-phd

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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