Women's electoral success and mass mobilization: evidence from individual voting data

Abstract

This paper brings individual level evidence to the hypothesis that women holding political offices affects mass mobilization. With a regression discontinuity design, I analyze the effect of close victories of directly elected female candidates in mixed-gender races at the federal elections in Germany in 2013 on individuals' decisions to turnout at the federal elections in Germany in 2017. In contrast to previous studies, when analyzing the effects of women in important political positions on turnout, mediating channels such as changes in the pool of candidates and policy implications for voters after a close victory of a female candidate are taken into account. The results indicate no effect of women winning a close electoral race on female turnout in the future. These findings hold even when considering intermediate and possibly compensating channels affecting turnout.

Keywords: symbolic representation, mass mobilization, female political participation, turnout, regression discontinuity design

JEL Classification: D14, G11, P34