Estimation of Non-Observable Economic Variables in EDB Member Countries

Abstract

The implementation of any State’s economic policy involves first developing short-term, mid-term and long-term forecasts, as well as socio-economic development programs. Their quality is largely dependent on credible assessments of the current economic setting, whose findings will then inform the forecasts. Proper identification of the business cycle, monetary, and fiscal situation as well as those factors affecting economic processes is instrumental to the attainment of the monetary and fiscal policy objectives.

Keywords: Forecast, economic indicators, output gap, monetary conditions, interest rate, GDP, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), national currencies, macroeconomic model, economic development, pandemic COVID-19

JEL Classification: E17, E66, F15, F31, H62, O11