Wind Power Potentials in Models - A Gis Based Reality Check
23 Pages Posted: 16 Feb 2022
Abstract
A critical parameter in modeling studies of future decarbonized energy systems is the socio-technical potential of onshore wind power. Here, we review the assumptions made in several energy system models. The wind potential in these studies is subjected to assumptions regarding: (i) the constraints on land availability for wind deployment; (ii) the maximum percentage of land area that may be exploited; and (iii) the allocation of capacity with respect to the wind speed. By analyzing comprehensive databases of wind turbine locations and GIS data in three countries and eleven US states with high penetration levels of wind power, we find that: i) wind power is installed on most land types, even protected areas and land areas with high population density; ii) the share of land used for wind deployment is up to 20% in some municipalities and counties; and iii) wind power has historically been allocated to relatively windy sites with an average wind speed >6 m/s. In many cases, the allocation methods used in energy system models do not reflect consistently the actual installations. For instance, we find no evidence of concentration of installations to the windiest sites, as is frequently assumed in energy system models. We conclude that assumptions made in models regarding wind power potentials are poorly reflective of the historical installation patterns, and we provide new data to enable assumptions that have a more robust empirical foundation.
Keywords: Wind power potential, Energy systems models
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