Trade Under Lockdown

43 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2022

See all articles by Antoine Berthou

Antoine Berthou

Banque de France

Sebastian Stumpner

University of Montreal - Department of Economics; Banque de France

Date Written: February 2022

Abstract

To curb the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on public health, many countries around the world introduced lockdown policies in 2020. We estimate the effect of these lockdowns on international trade flows, using a rich dataset of monthly bilateral product-level trade flows that covers roughly three quarters of world trade. Our main findings are: (i) Both exporter and importer lockdowns substantially reduced international trade, with importer lockdowns having a stronger impact; (ii) The effect of lockdowns on trade was strongest during the first wave, and has since been declining; (iii) Beyond the direct effect of lockdowns, we find evidence for indirect effects (i.e. lockdowns by third countries) through global value chains.

Keywords: COVID-19, Impact of Lockdowns, Global Value Chains

JEL Classification: : F10, F14, F44

Suggested Citation

Berthou, Antoine and Stumpner, Sebastian and Stumpner, Sebastian, Trade Under Lockdown (February 2022). Banque de France Working Paper No. 867, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4035651 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4035651

Antoine Berthou (Contact Author)

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

Sebastian Stumpner

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

University of Montreal - Department of Economics ( email )

C.P. 6128, succursale Centre-Ville
Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7
Canada

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