A Simulation of a Possible War between Russia and Ukraine: How Painful and how Costly?

15 Pages Posted: 3 Mar 2022

See all articles by Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

Center of Latin American Studies (CLAS) - University of Malaya; Akademia Ekonomiczno-Humanistyczna w Warszawie; Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala - Facultad de Ciencias Economicas

Marcin Staniewski

University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw

Alam Khan

KUST

Date Written: February 18, 2022

Abstract

This paper introduces a new economic simulator in the case of a war, this new economic simulator is entitled “The Post-War Economic Impact Simulator (PEI-Simulator).” The PEI-Simulator assesses the economic impacts of countries thorough the possible scenario of a partial or full war in three different stages: (i) pre-war stage; (ii) war stage; (iii) post-war stage. The analysis makes use of different indicators such as economic desgrowth from war (-δwar), war intensity (I), war losses (-Lwar), economic wear from war (Πwar), level of war tension (Twar), level of diplomatic negotiations (D), and the total economic leaking from war (Ωwar). Lastly, this research apply the PEI-Simulator to evaluate a possible full war between Russia and Ukraine.

Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, War, Economic Simulating, Economic Desgrowth

JEL Classification: C60, Q48, R11

Suggested Citation

Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo and Staniewski, Marcin and Khan, Alam, A Simulation of a Possible War between Russia and Ukraine: How Painful and how Costly? (February 18, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4038083 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4038083

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada (Contact Author)

Center of Latin American Studies (CLAS) - University of Malaya ( email )

R&D Wisma
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 50603
Malaysia
0126850293 (Phone)
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HOME PAGE: http://www.um.edu.my/

Akademia Ekonomiczno-Humanistyczna w Warszawie ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://https://vizja.pl/

Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala - Facultad de Ciencias Economicas ( email )

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Guatemala City, Guatemala city 01012
Guatemala
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HOME PAGE: http://www.usac.edu.gt

Marcin Staniewski

University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw ( email )

Okopowa 59
Warsaw, 01-030
Poland
+48225365473 (Phone)

Alam Khan

KUST ( email )

Department of Economics Kohat University of Scienc
Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 26000
Pakistan

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