A Simulation of a Possible War between Russia and Ukraine: How Painful and how Costly?
15 Pages Posted: 3 Mar 2022
Date Written: February 18, 2022
This paper introduces a new economic simulator in the case of a war, this new economic simulator is entitled “The Post-War Economic Impact Simulator (PEI-Simulator).” The PEI-Simulator assesses the economic impacts of countries thorough the possible scenario of a partial or full war in three different stages: (i) pre-war stage; (ii) war stage; (iii) post-war stage. The analysis makes use of different indicators such as economic desgrowth from war (-δwar), war intensity (I), war losses (-Lwar), economic wear from war (Πwar), level of war tension (Twar), level of diplomatic negotiations (D), and the total economic leaking from war (Ωwar). Lastly, this research apply the PEI-Simulator to evaluate a possible full war between Russia and Ukraine.
Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, War, Economic Simulating, Economic Desgrowth
JEL Classification: C60, Q48, R11
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