Did Sunspots Cycles 19-24 Influence the Enso Events, Pdo, and Amo Indexes in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans?

44 Pages Posted: 22 Feb 2022

See all articles by Franklin Isaac Ormaza-Gonzalez

Franklin Isaac Ormaza-Gonzalez

Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral (ESPOL)

María Esther Espinoza-Celi

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Heydi Mariana Roa-López

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

The sea surface temperature (SST), anomalies (SSTA), El Niño (ONI), and Multivariate ENSO (MEI) indexes in regions El Niño 1+2 and 3.4, as well as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), were cross correlated to sunspot counts (SS) from cycles 19 to 24 (1954-2019). Over the 1954-2019 period, the SS cycles did not show strong cross-correlation coefficients (cc-ρ) with values falling between 0.063 and 0.100 (p<0.05). It seems that Total Solar Irradiation (TSI) constant variability (±0.1%, ±1.361 W m -2 ) due to the SS cycle time behavior balanced out throughout the whole period. The cc-ρ coefficients for SST and SSTA versus each individual SS cycles were between 0.100 and 0.200 with lag times from a few months to 48. The ONI showed a cc-ρ < 0.1, while MEI reached up to 0.2 through all SS cycles. The slope of the cc-ρ change from negative to positive in 6 to 12 months lags, with peaks somewhere between 2-3 years. Interdecadal indexes PDO and AMO showed a cc-ρ up to 0.283; with a possible association of 8%, with a lag time of 1-3 years. During the ascending and descending phases of each SS cycle, the cc-ρ were 0.288 and -0.233, respectively for SST in 3.4, but in 1+2 were negligible. It seems that short-time expressions of SS cycles, either at the beginning of their ascending or descending phases, could have a trigger or influence effect on the SSTs. ONI and MEI showed cc-ρ up to 0.448 and 0.480 respectively with lag times of 1-15 months in ascending phase of the SS cycle. PDO and AMO also registered cc-ρ up to 0.417 and -0.491. AMO appeared systematically associated with SS cycles from 10.0 to 30.2 % during descending and ascending phases, respectively. Using compiled SS counts for all the ascending and descending phases of the SS cycles, a clearer spectral coherence (quasi sine-function distribution) was attained; for SST and SSTA, lag times 9 - 48 months were observed with inverse and direct linear relationship, and peaks of -0.38 and 0.39, respectively. The ONI and MEI have similar cc-ρ: 0.245 and 0.387. Around 6-15% of the ONI and MEI can be explained by SS during ascending and <4 % in descending phases. It seems that over the relatively short time scales of SS cycles, either on their initial ascending or end of descending phases, impacts on the studied indexes seem to be triggered or influenced. These results could be used as a potential source to improve predictive skills for the understanding of ENSO, PDO and AMO oceanographic events in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans . The cycle 25 started in December 2020, therefore around 2023-2024 an El Niño event could occur according to these results.

Keywords: Sunspots cycles, SST, SSTA, ONI, MEI, PDO, AMO, El Niño, La Niña Introduction

Suggested Citation

Ormaza-Gonzalez, Franklin Isaac and Espinoza-Celi, María Esther and Roa-López, Heydi Mariana, Did Sunspots Cycles 19-24 Influence the Enso Events, Pdo, and Amo Indexes in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans?. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4040383 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4040383

Franklin Isaac Ormaza-Gonzalez (Contact Author)

Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral (ESPOL) ( email )

Km 30.5
Via Perimetral
Guayaquil, Guayas EC090150
Ecuador

María Esther Espinoza-Celi

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Heydi Mariana Roa-López

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

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