Snowballing Alongside Domino Effects on the Proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements

54 Pages Posted: 22 Feb 2022

See all articles by Jee-Hyeong Park

Jee-Hyeong Park

Seoul National University

Jaeyoun Roh

Yeungnam University


Considering the third-country effects on bilateral incentives to sign a new PTA, we develop a theory-based empirical approach to access how a country's pre-existing PTAs affect her formation of a new PTA. Our empirical analysis using the theory-based measures of these effects confirms that a country's pre-existing PTAs generate a positive effect on her incentive to sign a new PTA (i.e., Own PTA effect) and a negative effect on her new partner's incentive to sign the PTA (i.e, Partner's PTA effect). The analysis also reveals that a CU's members are less likely to sign a new PTA than non-member countries as the Partner's PTA effect is magnified by the CU's joint negotiation requirement for a new PTA. Based on our n-country model of PTA proliferation, we conduct calibration exercises yielding varying degrees of predictive power.

Keywords: Preferential Trade Agreement, Proliferation of PTAs, Pre-existing PTA effects, Domino effect, Snowballing effect

Suggested Citation

Park, Jee-Hyeong and Roh, Jaeyoun, Snowballing Alongside Domino Effects on the Proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements. Available at SSRN: or

Jee-Hyeong Park (Contact Author)

Seoul National University ( email )

Seoul, 151-742
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Jaeyoun Roh

Yeungnam University ( email )

Daehak-ro 280, Gyeongsan-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do Gyeo
Republic of Korea
KS 38541
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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