Asset Allocation with Crypto: Application of Preferences for Positive Skewness

43 Pages Posted: 2 Apr 2022

See all articles by Andrew Ang

Andrew Ang

BlackRock, Inc

Tom Morris

BlackRock, Inc

raffaele savi

BlackRock, Inc

Date Written: February 22, 2022

Abstract

Bitcoin (BTC) returns exhibit pronounced positive skewness with a third central moment of approximately 150% per year. They are well characterized by a mixture of Normals distribution with one “normal” regime and a small probability of a “bliss” regime where the price appreciation is more than 100 times at the annual horizon. The large right-tail skew induces investors with preferences for positive skewness to add significant BTC holdings to equity-bond portfolios. Even when BTC is forecast to lose half of its value in the normal regime, investors with power utility optimally add 3% allocations to BTC when the probability of the bliss regime is around 1%. Cumulative Prospect Theory investors are even more sensitive to positive skewness and hold BTC allocations of around 3% when the probability of the bliss regime is 0.0006 and the mean of BTC in the normal regime corresponds to a loss of 90%.

Keywords: cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, crypto trading strategy, asset allocation with crypto, portfolio choice, cumulative prospect theory

JEL Classification: C13, C22, C24, E21, G02, G11, G12

Suggested Citation

Ang, Andrew and Morris, Tom and savi, raffaele, Asset Allocation with Crypto: Application of Preferences for Positive Skewness (February 22, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4042239 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4042239

Andrew Ang (Contact Author)

BlackRock, Inc ( email )

55 East 52nd Street
New York City, NY 10055
United States

Tom Morris

BlackRock, Inc

55 East 52nd Street
New York City, NY 10055
United States

Raffaele Savi

BlackRock, Inc ( email )

55 East 52nd Street
New York City, NY 10055
United States

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