Outcome Bias in Self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental Field Evidence from Swiss Driving License Exams

Exploiting a quasi-experimental field setting, we examine whether people are outcome biased when self-evaluating their past decisions. Using data from Swiss driving license exams, we find that candidates who narrowly passed the theoretical driving exam are significantly less likely to pass the subsequent practical driving exam – which is taken several months after the theoretical exam – than those who narrowly failed. Those candidates who passed the theoretical exam on their first attempt receive more objections regarding their momentary, on-the-spot decisions in the practical exam, consistent with the idea that the underlying behavioral difference is worse preparation.

Keywords: Outcome bias, Self-evaluation, Behavioral economics, Judgment, Regression discontinuity design

JEL Classification: D81, D83, D91

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Meier, Pascal Flurin and Flepp, Raphael and Meier, Philippe and Franck, Egon P., Outcome Bias in Self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental Field Evidence from Swiss Driving License Exams (August 10, 2022). Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol. 201, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.07.013, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4046994 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4046994