Are There Synergies in the Decarbonization of Aviation and Shipping? An Integrated Perspective for the Case of Brazil

Abstract

The large-scale electrification of aviation and shipping, which together account for emissions of nearly 2 GtCO₂/yr, is a challenge with current technology, making these the hardest-to-abate emissions within the transport sector. Today, the most promising alternative to deeply decarbonize aviation and shipping is the use of low-carbon fuels. A number of technological routes focused on the production of renewable jet fuel can coproduce marine fuels, emulating the economies of scope of crude oil refineries. In this context, this work aims to investigate whether there can be synergies in the decarbonization of aviation and shipping in the case of Brazil. To that end, and Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of national scope is used to explore four scenarios that represent different combinations of sectoral and national climate targets. In the absence of a deep mitigation policy for Brazil, results indicate synergies between the decarbonization of aviation and shipping related to oilseed- and lignocellulosic-based biofuel production routes. When imposing a strict carbon budget to the Brazilian economy compatible with a world well-below 2°C, the portfolio of aviation and shipping fuels change significantly due to the need of carbon dioxide removal strategies based on bioenergy. In such a scenario, synergies between the two sectors still exist, but most renewable marine energy supply is a by-product of the synthetic diesel produced for the road transport sector.